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Newsom Recall Headed to Double-Digit Defeat: Poll



PPIC's polling of likely voters delivered good news for Gov. Gavin Newsom about the Sept. 14 recall relection. (AP File)
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A new poll suggests that Gov. Gavin Newsom will fend off efforts to recall him from office.

The Public Policy Institute of California’s poll of likely voters indicated that 58% will vote “no” on the recall while 39% will vote “yes.”

The poll also found that partisanship is driving how Californians view the Sept. 14 recall election.

According to the PPIC, 90% of Democrats oppose the recall, and 82% of Republicans support it. Independents are closely divided, with 49% of them opposed and 44% supporting.

The 58% opposition to the recall is similar to PPIC poll results for May and March.

COVID Is No. 1 Issue

More than one in five respondents said that the pandemic is the top issue facing California. Jobs (12%) were second, followed by homelessness (11%).

Political analysts have speculated that the special election could produce low voter turnout. But 47% of the respondents to the PPIC poll said they were more enthusiastic about voting than usual.

However, Republicans (54%) and Independents (53%) expressed more enthusiasm for voting than Democrats (40%) did.

For a deep-dive analysis of the poll, check out Carla Marinucci’s story at Politico.

Elder Is Runaway Top Replacement Choice

While the question becomes moot if voters reject Newsom’s recall, conservative talk-show host Larry Elder topped the replacement candidates with 26% support. None of the other candidates eclipsed 5%.

The PPIC conducted the poll Aug. 20-29. The results include responses from 1,080 likely voters. The error margin is plus-or-minus 4.5%.

21% of Ballots Returned

The latest count from Political Data Inc. indicates that 21% of the state’s registered voters have turned in ballots.

“Around the state, we have had many special elections that have had turnout in the high-teens to mid-30% range, the kind of electorate that could have very strange outcomes,” said analyst Paul Mitchell. “But this recall special election seems to be poised to blast past those kinds of numbers.”

Bill McEwen is news director and columnist for GV Wire. He joined GV Wire in August 2017 after 37 years at The Fresno Bee. With The Bee, he served as Opinion Editor, City Hall reporter, Metro columnist, sports columnist and sports editor through the years. His work has been frequently honored by the California Newspapers Publishers Association, including authoring first-place editorials in 2015 and 2016. Bill and his wife, Karen, are proud parents of two adult sons, and they have two grandsons. You can contact Bill at 559-492-4031 or at Send an Email