More Storms for Valley in March. Will They Add to Snowpack or Melt It?

The rainy and snowy weather that has been a mainstay in California this winter appears likely to continue through March — even after the start of spring on March 20 — based on long-term modeling by the National Weather Service’s Climate Prediction Center.

But some forecasters are keeping a close eye on the potential for warmer storms to hit the state, soaking the massive snowpack and raising the potential for flooding.

Models are quickly trending towards a Pacific jet extension developing towards mid-March that could bring multiple significant, possibly warm atmospheric rivers to California.

This could have significant implications for flood potential and California’s snowpack. Stay tuned. pic.twitter.com/r70nx41mjk

— Colin McCarthy (@US_Stormwatch) February 28, 2023

IF a prolonged warm atmospheric river event were to occur amid near-record snowpack & extensive low elev snowfall, that could indeed pose significant flood threat. But that is speculation at this early juncture, & present odds are <= 1 in 5. Will certainly be watching! #CAwx pic.twitter.com/KgbgnayIpb

— Daniel Swain (@Weather_West) February 28, 2023

Sierra snow levels in Central California are now at 2,500 feet, meteorologist J.P. Kalb told GV Wire on Wednesday.

Yosemite Closes, Shelters Open

The stormy weather sparked the unusual closure last Friday of Yosemite National Park, the opening this week of shelters for Fresno County residents whose power has not been restored for days, and the loss of KVPR’s Fresno transmitter because of a power outage.

Yosemite closed on Saturday after some areas received as much as 15 feet of snow, and its reopening will depend on how soon crews can restore critical services, the park announced.

In addition, Fresno County officials announced Wednesday morning that the China Peak ski resort will be closed through the weekend.

China Peak will be closed through the weekend.

While crews continue to clear roads for emergency traffic, travel through mountain areas is hazardous. DO NOT plan to travel to the mountains until roads are deemed safe. We must keep roadways clear for emergency vehicles only. pic.twitter.com/Y8VbRfDVMj

— County of Fresno (@FresnoCountyCA) March 1, 2023

Meanwhile, the county’s Office of Emergency Services was working with the Red Cross to open shelters for residents of Prather, Auberry, Shaver Lake, Dunlap, Miramonte, and Squaw Valley who are without power.

The Prather shelter, which opened Tuesday, is at Foothill Elementary School, 29147 Auberry Road, while the Reedley shelter, which opened Monday, is at Reedley College gymnasium, 995 N. Reed Ave. The Red Cross is providing cots, blankets, pillows, and a few meals, but residents should bring clothing, medication, and toiletries. Kenneled pets are allowed to stay at the shelters.

Fresno County is warning motorists against trying to drive in the Sierra due to deep snow.

🚨ALERT🚨

February 28, 2023 — 4:00 pm.

Fresno County continues to experience heavy snow in the Sierra Nevada, making travel hazardous. Please DO NOT make plans to travel to the mountains until roads are deemed safe. pic.twitter.com/A4LqPxJjbY

— County of Fresno (@FresnoCountyCA) March 1, 2023

KVPR’s Meadow Lakes transmitter went silent on Tuesday after the facility lost power and then the back-up generator ran out of fuel. The outage did not affect the Bakersfield transmitter, and KVPR can still be heard online.

.@KVPR is off-air due to a power outage at our transmitter site at Meadow Lakes, CA elev. 4,500 ft. Our backup generator is now out of fuel. Hoping @PGE4Me service returns soon. Image from PG&E camera near our site pic.twitter.com/bAvKIZPyT0

— Joe Moore (@jn_moore) February 28, 2023

Stronger Probability for Colder, Wetter Weather

The short-term and longer-term forecast for Central California is for a higher probability for below normal temperatures and above normal precipitation, Kalb said.

The area is still under a freeze warning for overnight Wednesday into Thursday morning, with temperatures ranging from the upper 20s in outlying areas and low 30s in urban areas such as Fresno, he said.

Sunnier skiers will prevail until Saturday afternoon into Sunday, but precipitation m will be heavier further north in the Valley, Kalb said. There’s a possibility for a few showers in the region next week, he said.

If the storms continue to come out of the Gulf of Alaska, they will be colder and hold less moisture, Kalb said. But if the jet stream shifts southward, storms could be warmer and carry more moisture, such as the atmospheric rivers that pummeled the state earlier this winter, he said.

At this point, he said, the likelihood is greater for Gulf of Alaska storms and not atmospheric rivers.