Iran-Saudi Arabia Deal Shows China’s Growing Clout
An agreement between Iran and Saudi Arabia to reestablish diplomatic relations has cast China in a leading role in Middle Eastern politics — a part previously reserved for longtime global heavyweights like the U.S. and Russia. It’s another sign that China’s diplomatic clout is growing to match its economic footprint.
Under strongman leader Xi Jinping, Chinese diplomacy has become known for angry outbursts against the West, threats against Taiwan, aggressive moves in the South China Sea and a refusal to condemn Russia over Ukraine.
The deal reached in Beijing Friday, under which the sides agreed to reopen their embassies and exchange ambassadors after seven years of tensions, shows a different side of Chinese diplomacy. Xi appears to have played a direct part in the talks by hosting Iran’s president in Beijing last month. He also visited the Saudi capital Riyadh in December for meetings with oil-rich Gulf Arab nations crucial to China’s energy supplies.
The agreement was seen as a major diplomatic triumph for China, coming as Gulf Arab states perceive the United States as winding down its involvement in the Middle East.
“I think it is a sign that China is increasingly confident in taking a more assertive role in the Middle East,” said Muhammad Zulfikar Rakhmat, an Indonesian academic affiliated with the Washington-based Middle East Institute.
China’s economic interests increasingly draw it into conflicts far from its shores. It’s by far the biggest customer for Middle Eastern energy exports, while the U.S. has reduced its need for imports as the country shifts toward energy independence.
Chinese officials have long argued that Beijing should play a more active role in the region, said June Teufel Dreyer, a political scientist at the University of Miami specializing in Chinese politics.
Meanwhile, U.S.-Saudi frictions have created “a vacuum that Beijing was happy to step into,” Dreyer said.
China has invested heavily in regional energy infrastructure. It also occasionally contributed naval ships to join anti-piracy operations off the coast of Somalia, though the U.S. Navy has served as the main security guarantor for Mideast waters since the 1980s.
In a statement Saturday, China’s Foreign Ministry quoted an unidentified spokesperson as saying Beijing “pursues no selfish interest whatsoever.”
“China has no intention to and will not seek to fill so-called vacuum or put up exclusive blocs,” it said, in an apparent reference to the U.S.
At the close of the ceremonial legislature’s annual session Monday, leader Xi Jinping said China should “actively participate in the reform and construction of the global governance system” and promote “global security initiatives,”
Diplomatic Victory for China
The diplomatic victory comes as Washington has heavily criticized China for failing to condemn Russia’s invasion and for accusing the U.S. and NATO of provoking the conflict.
However, many Middle Eastern governments view China as a neutral party, with strong ties to both Saudi Arabia, China’s largest oil supplier, and Iran, which relies on China for 30% of its foreign trade and in which China has pledged to invest $400 billion over 25 years. Iran, which has few export markets owing to sanctions over its nuclear program, sells oil to China at a steep discount.
The deal “boosts Beijing’s ability to project an image of itself as a constructive actor for peace, which will be helpful for fending off accusations from the West that it is supporting Russia’s invasion in Ukraine,” said Amanda Hsiao, Taipei-based analyst for the International Crisis Group.
“It demonstrates that China is trying to conduct competition in foreign diplomacy with the U.S., and not only in its immediate neighborhood,” said Wang Lian, an international relations professor at Beijing’s prestigious Peking University. The successful negotiations show the two countries “placed their trust in China,” Wang said.
China created the position of special envoy for the Middle East in 2002, focusing on Israel and the Palestinian Authority. While China sells drones and other weaponry to countries in the region, it does so nowhere on the scale of the United States and without political conditions.
Earlier, China moved aggressively to build ties in the South Pacific, signing a security agreement with the Solomon Islands that could see Chinese naval ships and security forces taking up a presence in the country. The U.S., Australia and others moved swiftly to shore up ties in the Pacific, and China’s efforts to ink similar agreements with other island nations ultimately foundered.
Having secured a norm-breaking third five-year term in office, Xi appears more confrontational than ever toward the West, with his foreign minister warning just days earlier of future “conflict and confrontation” with the U.S.
However, that strain of tough-talking “wolf warrior” diplomacy is mainly reserved for developed nations seen as rivals, while China has been “admirably diplomatic” with others, said Miami’s Dreyer. Having largely written off the democratic West, China has been willing to build close ties with authoritarian regimes from North Korea to Nicaragua.
Though China is active in U.N. peacekeeping operations, Beijing’s previous efforts at third-party mediation have sagged under the weight of its political baggage. A recent Chinese proposal calling for a cease-fire and peace negotiations between Russia and Ukraine went nowhere.
China’s decision to mediate between Iran and Saudi Arabia was highly deliberate, both because the two are key to regional stability and for the opportunity to “poke a finger” in Washington’s eye, said Yitzhak Shichor, professor of political science and Asian studies at Israel’s University of Haifa and a leading expert on Beijing’s ties with the region.
It’s too soon to say whether the agreement will bring lasting improvements between the two longtime adversaries, much less greater Mideast stability. None of their fundamental conflicts appear to have been discussed.
But for Saudi Arabia, the agreement may facilitate its quest for an off-ramp from its proxy war against Iran-backed Houthis rebels in Yemen. And for Iran, it could contribute to greater regional stability at a time of mounting domestic problems.
Not everyone happy about the agreement.
Under political pressure at home, Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has threatened military action against Iran’s nuclear program as it enriches closer than ever to weapons-grade levels. Riyadh seeking an accommodation with Tehran takes one potential ally for a strike off the table.
It was unclear what this development meant for Washington, whose Middle East presence has waned since the end of its withdrawal from Iraq and amid its growing energy independence.
However, the White House bristled at the notion that a Saudi-Iran agreement in Beijing suggests that Chinese influence could replace the U.S. in the Mideast. “I would stridently push back on this idea that we’re stepping back in the Middle East — far from it,” National Security Council spokesman John Kirby said.
The fact that Saudi Arabia struck the agreement without Washington shows they are “seeking to diversify their bets on security and not rely wholly on the United States,” Jon Alterman of the Center for Strategic & International Studies, wrote in a note on the deal.
“The U.S. government is of two minds on that; it wants the Saudis to take increasing responsibility for their own security, but it does not want Saudi Arabia freelancing and undermining U.S. security strategies,” Alterman wrote.