There’s a 95% chance of an El Niño occurring between December 2023 and February 2024, the National Weather Service said in a recent update.
In addition, there’s a two-in-three chance it will be a “strong” El Niño, NWS says.
Meanwhile, the California Coastal Commission has updated its webpage at www.coastal.ca.gov with El Niño information and resources. Commission staffers say they want residents to click on the link to learn vital information.
“We are kind of raising the flag on this,” commission Chair Donne Brownsey said at the commission meeting on Sept. 6 in Eureka. “Every single day there is a new report about the warming ocean, the rising seas, and the accelerated melting of the Arctic. It just goes on and on. This is a harbinger that is really scary.”
The commission’s website says, “Current ocean conditions are consistent with an emerging El Niño event, while climate model projections indicate a high probability that a strong El Niño will form and continue through the 2023-24 Northern Hemisphere winter, possibly extending through spring. The peak influence of this El Niño event is anticipated for the December-February period, when it could result in more frequent and intense storms, rainfall, and high wave conditions on the California coast.”